4-2-2012 The Black Swan


BLACK SWAN – THE URANUS EFFECT

The Black Swan Theory or "Theory of Black Swan Events" was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: 1) the disproportionate role of high-impact, hard to predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology, 2) the non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to their very nature of small probabilities) and 3) the psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs. Black Swan Theory refers to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.

Threats to access and distribution of food supplies could include:

  • Political instability of supplier countries . Nuclear war in northern hemisphere
  • Accidents and natural disasters. Or provoked.
  • Climate change. Northern hemisphere is frozen due to absence of the Gulf Stres
  • Gulf Stream stopped due to the torpedoes that sunk Deepwaterhorizon in Mexican Gulf.
  • Earthquakes throughout the world.
  • Volcanoes darkening the sky.
  • Change in earth magnetic field

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